Why the next election might break the Conservative party
OTTAWA — The conservative party has recently chosen a new leader: Erin O’toole. It’s safe to say that not many Canadians know who Erin O’toole is, or even care to know for now but that isn’t the conservatives party biggest problem or obstacle. Far from it.
As shown through the election of 2019 or even previous elections, the conservatives have had a particularly hard time gaining new voters in new ridings or provinces in a consistent manner. The last time they did, in the 2011 election, they have had to employ a very effective, timely and targeted communication strategy in certain areas of Toronto, taking away a lot of seats from the already weakened liberal party but they couldn’t consolidate or retain those gains for very long.
The newly elected chief of the conservative party, Erin O’toole focus on policy is refreshing, especially when we compare him to his predecessor. His policies seem to want to make the conservative party more palatable to liberal party voters: focus on Environment and energy with a commitment to Canada’s Paris Agreement accord, a promise not to reopen the debate on abortion, inviting the members of the LGBTQ+ community to join the conservative party in his acceptance speech, reaching out and appealing to francophone minorities throughout the country, economical populist rhetoric regarding unions and nationalistic rhetoric against China, etc.
This is smart but also very risky. Erin O’toole and his party have probably realized that a good chunk of the Canadian electorate are left leaning in terms of social values and/or middle of the road on economical policy. The issue here is that those Canadian voters have already found refuge in either the NDP or (and especially) the Liberal party of Canada. Taking them from a strong liberal party will take more than centrists policies. Also, Erin O’toole isn’t exactly a heavyweight in terms of political stardom and popularity, like Trudeau or even Mackay dare I say. While alone, those things might not win you a Canadian election, having them certainly wouldn’t hurt.
If Conservatives want to meet liberal voters at the middle in terms of social and economic policy, and be able to capitalize on a bad news cycle for Justin Trudeau liberals, they would’ve probably been better off with the more experienced, more liberal and most importantly, the better-known Peter Mackay.
Furthermore, the Harper years seem to have left a very sour taste in a lot of voters mouth, and conservatives can’t seem to be able to properly capitalize on the Liberal party’s scandals. Posturing as the most ethical party hasn’t seemed to have been a good long-term strategy as voters still seem to prefer the liberal over the conservative party. Besides, as a strategy capitalizing on scandals for gaining votes isn’t always a winning formula in politics because in that formula, the most important variable, which is timing, is also the hardest to nail down.
Granted, with the right mix of circumstances and a bit of luck, the current strategy of Erin O’tool and the conservatives might work, and he could win the next election. But if they don’t, this begs the question: how much more to the left in terms of policy the Conservative party will have to go before Canadians currently voting for the Liberal party, the NDP or even the Bloc Québecois can see them as a viable consistent alternative to the Liberal Party, without compromising the unity of the party and its values ? We must not forget that the current Conservative party is a merger of the former Reform Party of Canada/Canadian Alliance (CA) and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (PC) and that party unity isn’t a given, especially when the party racks up election defeat after election defeat.
Erin O’toole and the Conservative party have a real chance of winning the next election with their current strategy. But if they fail, their strategy might not only have cost them the election, but also their party.
